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Present and future flood losses in the 136 largest coastal cities have been quantified. Average global flood losses in 2005 have been estimated to be approximately US$6 billion per year

Across the Balkan Peninsula and Turkey climate change is particularly rapid, and especially summer temperatures are expected to increase strongly.

The Euphrates–Tigris Basin hosts the two important snow-fed rivers of the Middle East, and its water resources are critical for the hydroelectric power generation, irrigation and ...

Projected warming over Turkey’s climatic regions in 2100 under SRES A2 emission scenario is in the range of 2–5°C ...

Flash floods associated with intense and prolonged rainstorms are a common phenomenon, especially in coastal parts of Turkey ...

The likely effects of climate change on the water resources of Turkey have been investigated for 2040–2069 and 2070–2099 compared with 1961–1990 ...

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I recommend

National plans/strategies for Turkey

  • National climate change action plan. Download.

Reports/papers that focus on important Turkish topics

  • Climate Change: observations, projections and impacts. Downloads.

Reports/papers that present a sound overview for Europe

  • Eisenreich (2005). Climate change and the European water dimension. A report to the European water directors.
  • European Environment Agency (2005). Vulnerability and adaptation to climate change in Europe. Download.
  • European Environment Agency, JRC and WHO (2008). Impact of Europe’s changing climate – 2008 indicator-based assessment. Download.
  • Swart et al. (2009). Europe adapts to climate change. Comparing national adaptation strategies. Download.

Reports/papers that focus on specific topics, relevant for all of Europe

  • Agriculture: Rounsevell et al. (2005). Future scenarios of European agricultural land use II. Projecting changes in cropland and grassland. Download.
  • Agriculture: Fischer et al. (2005). Socio-economic and climate change impacts on agriculture: an integrated assessment, 1990–2080. Download.
  • Biodiversity: Thuiller et al. (2005). Climate change threats to plant diversity in Europe. Download.
  • Coastal erosion: Salman et al. (2004). Living with coastal erosion in Europe: sediment and space for sustainability. Download.
  • Cultural-historical heritage: Cassar (2005). Climate change and the historic environment. Download.
  • Droughts: Blenkinsop and Fowler (2007). Changes in European drought characteristics projected by the PRUDENCE regional climate models. Download.
  • Droughts: European Environment Agency (2009). Water resources across Europe – confronting water scarcity and drought. Download.
  • Forestry: Seppälä et al. (2009). Adaptation of forests and people to climate change. A global assessment report. Download.
  • Health: Kosatsky (2005). The 2003 European heat waves. Download.
  • Health: WHO (2008). Protecting health in Europe from climate change. Download.
  • Insurance and Business: Mills et al. (2005). Availability and affordability of insurance under climate change. A growing challenge for the U.S. Download.
  • Security and Crisis management: O’Brien et al. (2008). Disaster risk reduction, climate change adaptation and human security. Download.
  • Security and Crisis management: German Advisory Council on Global Change (2007). World in transition: Climate change as a security risk. Summary for policy-makers. Download.
  • Storms: Gardiner et al. (2010). Destructive storms in European forests: Past and forthcoming impacts. Download.
  • Storms: Pinto et al. (2007). Changing European storm loss potentials under modified climate conditions according to ensemble simulations of the ECHAM5/MPI-OM1 GCM. Download.
  • Tourism: Deutsche Bank Research (2008). Climate change and tourism: Where will the journey lead? Download.

EU funded Research Projects

Aquifers

Climate change scenarios

Coastal areas

Droughts and water scarcity

Floods

Forest fires

Fresh water resources

Mitigation / adaptation options and costs

Urban areas

Climate change Turkey

The climate of Turkey

The southern and western coastal areas have a Mediterranean climate, but further to the east and north a number of factors make the climate more complex. These factors include extremely varied topography, an inland sea (the Black Sea) to the north and, beyond that, the vast Russian plain which, in winter, acts as a close source of very cold air. Contrastingly, the east of Turkey adjoins Syria and the Middle East which become very hot in summer and the southern coastline is only around 500km across the Mediterranean from the hot continent of Africa. Most of Turkey is high plateau and the terrain becomes increasingly mountainous towards the east. Even in the lower-lying west the terrain is mostly hilly (5).

In general, Turkey is warm or hot in summer and cold or very cold in winter. However, coasts are much milder in winter than inland, especially the south and west coasts. Winter precipitation on the inland plateaux and mountains is often of snow which can lie for 3-4 months in the east. Annual mean temperatures are higher along the coasts and, inland, reduced by altitude. ... Typical summer daily maxima range from ~26-28°C along the Black Sea coastline to 34°C towards the east of the Mediterranean coastline. Typical winter daytime maxima range dramatically from 15°C at Adana to below freezing inland in the east, e.g. only -4°C at Erzurum (5).

In summer, southern coastal areas are mostly dry and sunny; precipitation amounts to around 650 mm/year at Adana, most of it in the winter half of the year. ... Inland, a double precipitation cycle emerges, peaking in both autumn and spring. Despite the higher altitude, inland areas have lower annual totals than on the coast – e.g. annual average precipitation only 382 mm at Ankara and 436 mm at Erzurum. Along the Black Sea coast, precipitation increases eastwards from around 680 mm at Istanbul to 823 mm at Trabzon (5).

Air temperature changes until now

Summer

The most prominent feature that one can observe is the widespread increase in summer temperatures. Summer temperatures increase mostly in the western and southwestern parts of Turkey. Urban heat island studies (4) indicate that temperature rise as a result of urbanisation is most notable in summer in Mediterranean cities when the region comes under the influence of high pressure systems. Thus, widespread increase in temperature in western stations in Turkey may be mainly related to this phenomenon (2).

The trend for Turkey is relatively large over summer at 0.34°C per decade (5).

In summer the general trend is an increase of maximum temperatures, particularly in western Turkey. Several stations in eastern Anatolia also show significant increases in maximum temperature. Summer minimums exhibit significant increasing trends at almost all stations that have observations in the period considered in this study (2). Over the period 1950–2010 the numbers of both summer and tropical days showed statistically significant increasing trends for summer (tropical) days at 64 (71) stations out of 97 stations, of which 51 (58) of these positive trends are significant at the 0.01 significance level (13).

Heat waves

Since the 1960s the temperature of hot summer days and nights has increased. A hot day/night is defined as a day/night when the daily maximum/minimum air temperature exceeds the long‐term (1969–1998) daily 95th percentile within the June–September season (122 days). Also, the number, length and intensity of heat waves have increased significantly in this period. The observed trends agree with findings for other European regions and the western Mediterranean (3). In the eastern Mediterranean, the intensity, length and number of heat waves have increased by a factor of six to eight since the 1960s (9).

Overall, the strongest increase of these daily maximum and minimum air temperatures are found across the western Balkans, southwestern and western Turkey, and along the eastern parts of the Turkish Black Sea coastline. Stations that show non‐significant heat wave changes cluster in continental parts of the Balkan Peninsula, Greece, parts of western Turkey, eastern Anatolia and higher altitudes (1).

Winter

Winter temperatures show a general tendency to decrease. It can be noted that the more significant ones are mostly concentrated in the coastal stations. During transition seasons, stations with significant trends are usually sporadic in nature, and they do not show a coherent regional behavior (2).

The trend for Turkey in winter is very small at -0.01°C per decade (5).

The maximum temperatures for winter exhibit significant downward trends in the coastal stations of the Black Sea region and widespread decreasing tendency in the central Anatolian region. Winter minimums show significant decreases only in the northern and southern coastal regions (2).

Precipitation changes until now

Throughout the period 1951-2004 winter precipitation in the western provinces of Turkey has decreased significantly. Fall precipitation, on the other hand, has increased at stations that lie mostly in the northern parts of central Anatolia. In the spring and summers, there are only a few stations with statistically significant changes; still, they do not show a coherent regional behavior (2).

Turkey in general receives much of its precipitation in winter. Precipitation makes a peak in January in southern and western parts of Turkey, in February and March in most of the central Anatolia, in December in northern Marmara region including Istanbul, in October and November in Black Sea coasts, and in May and June in far eastern parts. Degree of seasonal concentration of precipitation is the highest in the Mediterranean and Aegean coasts of Turkey, and it decreases towards Black Sea coasts. It seems that the general picture of seasonality of precipitation has remained constant during the last 70 years (2).

Air temperature changes in the 21st century

According to results from different climate change scenarios, an increase of 1.2⁰C in mean annual temperature can be expected for 2030. In 2050, the mean annual temperature increases by around 2⁰C. In the context of model estimations, increase in monthly temperatures indicate that warmer winters are expected, while summers get hotter (2).

Projected temperature increases over Turkey for 2100 compared with 1960-1990, based on a large number of climate models and the A1B emission scenario, are around 2.5-3°C in the north, 3-3.5°C over central and south-western regions, and 3.5-4.0°C in the east (5). For the A2 emission scenario a temperature increase of 2–5°C for 2100 compared with 1960-1990 has been projected (10).

Summer

In the period 2071-2100 with respect to 1961-1990, estimated temperature increase in summer time is highest in the western half of the country. Especially the Aegean Region experiences temperature increases up to 6⁰C (2,10). These two regions are prominent on tourism and industrial sectors in Turkey; the projected increase in summer temperature may cause serious economic and social implications (10).

Winter

In the period 2071-2100 with respect to 1961-1990, estimated temperature increase in winter time is highest in the eastern half of the country (2). During winter season, projected warming over the western part of Turkey at the end of this century (just over 2°C) is much less than during the summer (10).

Eastern Mediterranean and the Middle East (EMME)

For the Eastern Mediterranean and the Middle East an analysis was carried out of long-term meteorological datasets (period 1901-2006) along with regional climate model projections for the 21st century (SRES scenario A1B) (6). The results suggest a continual, gradual and relatively strong warming of the area of about 1-3°C in the near-future (2010–2039), to 3–5°C in the mid-century period (2040–2069) and 3.5–7°C by the end of the century (2070–2099). Daytime maximum temperatures appear to increase most rapidly in the northern part of the region, i.e. the Balkan Peninsula and Turkey. Maximum day time temperature increases more strongly than mean night time minimum temperature (11).

Extremely high summer temperatures are projected to become the norm by 2070–2099; the coolest summers at the end-of-century may be warmer than the hottest ones in the recent past. As an example, the hottest summer on record in Athens in 2007 would be among the 5% coolest ones by the end of the century (6,11). The relatively strong upward trend in the northern parts of the Eastern Mediterranean and the Middle East indicates a continuation of the increasing intensity and duration of heat waves observed in this region since 1960 (7). According to regional climate model results based on the IPCC SRES scenarios A1B, A2 and B2, the number of heat wave days, here defined as days with maximum temperatures exceeding the local 90th percentile of the reference period (1961–1990), typically increases by a factor of 4–10 by the middle and 7–15 by the end of the century, with the strongest increases in the Middle East (11).

Current and future daytime mean temperature trends in the Eastern Mediterranean and the Middle East typically vary from 0.28° to 0.46°C per decade. The largest increases appear in some continental locations such as Belgrade, Sofia, Ankara, Baghdad and Riyadh with trends in excess of 0.4°C/decade. The same analysis was performed for daytime maximum and night-time minimum temperature; for daytime maximum temperature the largest upward trends are calculated for Belgrade, Sofia, Tirana and Ankara with 0.48°, 0.46°, 0.45° and 0.44°C per decade, respectively. For night-time minimum temperature, large positive trends exceeding 0.40°C/decade are derived for Belgrade, Riyadh, Baghdad, Athens, Sofia and Ankara (6,11).

A1B scenario results suggest that by the end of the century, the frequency of very hot days (maximum day time temperature >35°C) may increase up to 1–2 weeks per year in mountainous parts of the northern EMME and by about a month in much of the rest of the region. The frequency of ‘‘tropical’’ nights (mean night time minimum temperature > 25°C) also increases strongly, by nearly a month per year in the Balkans and coastal areas, and more than two months in the Gulf region, exacerbating the daytime heat stress. By the end of the century in most cities, the coolest summers may be warmer than the hottest ones today (11).

Precipitation changes in the 21st century

In general, precipitation decreases in the period 2071-2100 with respect to 1961-1990 along the Aegean and Mediterranean coasts and increases along the Black Sea coast of Turkey. Central Anatolia shows little or no change in precipitation. The most severe (absolute) reductions will be observed on the southwestern coast; in contrast, Caucasian coastal region is expected to receive substantially more precipitation. These observations are valid both for the annual and the winter totals (2).

According to results from different climate change scenarios, a decrease of 5% in mean annual precipitation can be expected for 2030. In 2050, mean annual precipitation decreases by approximately 10%. Although decreases are expected in precipitation in all months, the sharp decreases in spring and autumn are significantly important, because summers in the region are already dry (2). 

Projected precipitation change over Turkey for 2100 compared with 1960-1990, based on a large number of climate models and the A1B emission scenario, indicate mainly decreases in precipitation, in common with the wider Mediterranean and majority of the Middle East. Decreases of over 20% are projected in the south of the country, with strong ensemble agreement. Smaller changes are projected towards the north, between 0-10%, but with more moderate agreement between the models (5). According to projected results for the period 2071-2100 compared with 1961-1990 based on the A2 emission scenario, precipitation in all seasons and in almost all regions decreases except for the autumn season. All the major precipitation changes for the climatic regions of Turkey are found statistically significant. The range of decrease is 10–35 % (10).

Eastern Mediterranean and the Middle East

From the analysis of long-term meteorological datasets (period 1901-2006) along with regional climate model projections for the 21st century (SRES scenario A1B) a decline of annual precipitation is projected of 5–25% in 2040–2069 and 5–30% in 2070–2099 relative to the reference period 1961–1990 (6). The decreases will be particularly large (>15%) in Cyprus, Greece, Israel, Jordan, Lebanon, the Palestine territories and Syria. As a result of precipitation decrease, and also due to population growth rates, the per capita available internal water resources may decline strongly, for example by 50% or more by mid-century in Cyprus (12).

In the Balkans, Turkey, Cyprus, Lebanon and Israel, the number of rainy days may decrease, e.g. by 5–15 days at mid-century and by 10–20 days per year at the end-of-century (6). This appears to be a continuation of a trend observed in Greece since about 1960 (8).

The intensity of precipitation (maximum amount of rain per day) is expected to decrease except over the northern Balkans and the Caucasus (6).

References

  1. Kuglitsch et al. (2010)
  2. Güven (2007)
  3. Moberg et al. (2006), in:Kuglitsch et al. (2010)
  4. Ezber et al. (2006); Karaca et al. (1995), both in: Güven (2007)
  5. MET Office (2011)
  6. Lelieveld et al. (2012)
  7. Kuglitsch et al. (2010), in: Lelieveld et al. (2012)
  8. Nastos and Zerefos 2009, in: Lelieveld et al. (2012)
  9. Kuglitsch et al. (2010), in: Coumou and Rahmstorf (2012)
  10. Önol and Unal (2012)
  11. Lelieveld et al. (2013)
  12. Chenoweth et al. (2011), in: Lelieveld et al. (2013)
  13. Erlat and Türkeş (2013)
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